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Stormy Route: Sirocco "Nerf" Debunked

calendar_month Published On: Tuesday, November 03, 2020     calendar_month Updated on:
person Posted by: DressUp_Fighter_Online     rate_review Be the first to comment!
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  • There have been rumors of a gold nerf in Stormy Route after the release of Sirocco raid.
  • One of the first claim was in this reddit post, October 20, which is right after the release of the raid. However, through the Exstream reddit summary, Neople denied this claim.
  • In this post, the author went back to run Stormy Route 401 times (1 extra time by accident) and compare the result to this previous blogpost (collected pre-Sirocco) to see if there are any differences.
Procedure
  • The author kept the procedure same as the previous post (20 runs on each characters, sells all dropped, no repair cost, etc.).
  • On post-Sirocco data, character 18, the author accidentally ran 21 runs instead of 20 runs.
  • The Goldicon.png column refers to the amount of golds dropped in dungeon plus gold flips at the end plus selling all drops (e.g. common, uncommon, rare, etc.)
The Data
  • For this analysis, the author will only show data for Time Crystal (Material).png Time's Guide Stone.png Aiolite.png Goldicon.png.

Result & Discussion
  • Disclaimer: The author is not a statistician, and the test was performed under the author's best knowledge from an undergraduate stat class. Feel free to suggest a better test.
  • From this website that list all the different tests, and since we're testing the difference between the drops from the same dungeon from 2 separate timeframes to test the nerf hypothesis, the author performed Two-Tailed Unequal Variance Independent T-tests.
  • You can read about how to replicate this test in Excel here.
  • With the P-value of 0.05, the author concludes that there are no differences in Time's Guide Stone.png (p>0.05) and Aiolite.png (p>0.05). However, there is a difference in Goldicon.png (p<0.05).
  • The amount different in cumulative golds is about 8.6% (~3,900 Goldicon.png per run) comparing the two averages. 
  • Worth noting that the definition of "nerf" differs between players. The original reddit post was referring to the gold flips at the end of dungeon. Some players claimed that the golds dropped from mobs were actually boosted to compensate for the decrease in gold flip. So since this data was collected under the intention of cumulative gold amounts, it may not reflects the "nerf" gold flips nor may it reflects the increase in golds dropped from mobs.
TL;DR
  • Do I get less golds from farming Stormy Route?
    • Statistically speaking: YES
    • Is it realistically significant? PROBABLY NO

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